The 2024 Election Seven Months Out

Ryan Heshmati

April 5, 2024

The 2024 presidential election will likely prove to be historic for a variety of reasons. Not only are an array of widely unpopular candidates running, but two of them (Trump and Biden) were born in the 1940s. The youngest of the three, also the least likely to win based on current polling, is Robert F. Kennedy Jr, only 70. Age is far from the most fascinating element of this race, which looks like it will prove to be a rematch with a twist, much like a box office hit’s sequel with a character addition for ratings. Unfortunately, the stakes are far higher than with a motion picture. The United States, at a moment of deep polarization, perhaps the most polarized since the Civil War, will almost certainly see that division front and center as the candidates move into the swing of the general election.

For starters, Former President Trump is a particularly unique candidate. Unlike more recent incumbent presidents who lost their reelection bids (like Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush), Trump decided that 2020 would not be the end of the road. The former president has another edge: election denial. Since he chose to rely on unproven claims of election fraud in 2020 after his loss, concerns remain as to how he would handle another loss in 2024, especially as the horrors of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol remain fresh in many Americans’ memories.

President Biden is certainly not an ideal candidate either. In trying to walk the line that unifies the progressive wing of his party while energizing moderates and independents, he has a major challenge. It is unsurprising that his own party is not excited about him. In September of 2023, Shauneen Miranda of Axios reported on a CNN poll that two-thirds of Democrats wanted another candidate as the nominee. Nevertheless, bids by Marianne Williamson and Dean Philips have not had any serious pull, and Biden is slated to move into November. While President Biden is less than five years older than Trump, a lot of attention to Biden’s age has proven to be another challenge to the incumbent.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr, despite a very weak showing in the polls compared to Trump or Biden, represents a real force moving into the general election. An Emerson College poll from April had RFK taking a 7.8% share, with Trump at 43.2% and Biden lower at 42%. That nearly 8% may not win him the election, but it could lose the race for Biden. If RFK serves as an option for moderate Democrat-leaning voters who are disaffected with Biden but unwilling to vote for Trump, Biden would have to move forward looking at the RFK bid as a very existent problem.

With seven months to go until the election, much remains unclear. Trump, while slightly ahead according to Emerson College polls, faces legal troubles that could distract him from applying his resources fully toward the 2024 race. Biden, though an incumbent, is not popular, even among his own party’s voters. While there are not many serious fears that RFK could grab a victory, how he will hurt Biden will be a serious fear for Democrats. This is an election cycle, however, and it is given that the landscape could shift rapidly.