The 2024 Republican Landscape

Ryan Heshmati

March 3, 2023

After the divide that America endured after the 2020 presidential election, anxiousness naturally accompanies any consideration of what 2024 will look like. Afterall, the United States is facing a poor economy, foreign superpowers, and a domestic divide. The race has already started, with candidates posturing and aligning in preparation for a potentially contentious election. Who has entered the Republican race? Who is considered a contender? While much time remains until election day, there are indications worth exploration.

Most importantly, former President Trump announced he is running for a second term in 2024, “In order to make America great and glorious again…” If President Trump were to win in 2024, he would be the first president since Grover Clevland that successfully won re-election after initially failing to do so. Forbes notes a December 2022 Quinnipiac poll that found the former president’s favorability rating has plunged dramatically, now down to 31%. With those numbers, however, there is much doubt regarding President Trump’s path to victory, potentially explaining why former Vice President Mike Pence responded, 

“I think we’ll have better choices,” when prompted about Trump’s election bid.

One prominent Republican who got attention for announcing her bid for the Republican nomination is Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. She sold herself in the announcement as a stepping stone to transition the part to a “new generation of leadership.” She did receive the endorsement of Representative Ralph Norman of South Carolina, a former Trump ally, but her poll numbers are dismal. While The Hill points out that in the span on just one week, Haley’s share of Republican support doubled, it is still in single digits, at six percent.

One major name being watched that has not announced a 2024 run is Republican Governor Ron DeSantis. The governor has cemented his control over Florida. He won the 2018 gubernatorial election by only a 0.4% margin but in 2022, he expanded that margin to 19.4%. His popularity is strong among Republicans on the national scale, too. A survey mentioned in USA Today put DeSantis at second place after Trump in the primary race, with 29% support, compared to Trump’s 45%. While the governor may not have announced yet, Former President Trump appeared concerned when he called his former ally “Ron DeSanctimonious” in an apparent attempt to assert dominance over DeSantis.

The primary is still ways away, and there are many others who may take their shot at the presidency, like former Vice President Pence. Regardless, the dynamics shaping the potential landscape with just these three personalities will be fascinating to watch unfold. And it is important to note, whoever comes out of the primary alive must still face a Democratic nominee in order to obtain the keys to the White House.