The 2024 Election: Where the Race Stands

Ryan Heshmati

October 20, 2023

President Biden is not faring well in national polls. Axios reports that Former President Trump is leading the incumbent in key swing states. They cite a seven-state poll that covered Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. The findings are that “Former President Trump leads Biden 47% to 43% in the seven-state poll, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point.” An incredibly significant set of data considering Republican hopeful Ron DeSantis based the foundation of his campaign on the belief that he is the only Republican who can beat President Biden. The landscape has changed dramatically in the last several months, and knowing where the candidates stand is important.

Nikki Haley has risen in polls and now threatens to overtake Ron DeSantis for second place. The problem is that Trump, according to ABC News 538 elections coverage, leads with 56.7%. Not only does Trump have a majority, but the remaining 43%+ splits among so many candidates that none comes close to threatening the former president. Trump, who has refused to participate in any primary debates thus far, is in an incredibly strong position. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who had initially begun a run on the Democratic platform, has transitioned to being an independent presidential candidate. A Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, reported by The Hill, puts Kennedy at 19%, with Biden at 33%, and Trump at 39%. Adding an independent candidate with a national name to bolster his presence draws parallels to Ross Perot’s bid for the presidency in 1992. In that election, incumbent George H.W. Bush faced Democratic challenger Bill Clinton (who ultimately won) and Perot as an independent. Interestingly, Perot received just about 19% of the popular vote, where Kennedy currently stands.

While many may expect the Democratic and Republican nominees to be another matchup just like 2020, with Biden and Trump, that does not mean it is popular. In April, Axios’ Erin Doherty reported on an NBC News poll that indicated, “70% of Americans believe Biden should not run for re-election… [and] 60% of Americans, including one third of Republicans, say Trump, 76, should not run for president.” Nevertheless, the election very well may be headed in that direction. 

President Biden faces serious challenges in his re-election bid. President Trump, while looking very secure with Republican primary polls, has not won any state’s nominations yet, and polls might change. Should another matchup between the two politicians occur in 2024, despite the unpopularity of the prospect, the fight for 270 electoral votes will almost certainly be incredibly contentious.