Strike Out

Diya Ravi

June 27, 2025

The recent American airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites leave questions remaining about what the military has accomplished. Both the Pentagon and the White House have launched a full-scale effort to frame the operation as both necessary and successful. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine emphasized the years of planning that led to the strike and its precise execution, hoping to convince a skeptical public. 

So far, Americans aren’t buying it. This week a CNN poll was released showing that 56% of Americans disapprove of the airstrikes–a response likely far from what the Trump administration had hoped for. Responses As expected, responses broke along partisan lines: 82% of Republicans approved, while 88% of Democrats opposed the decision. The most telling numbers, however, came from independents — 60% of whom disapproved of the strikes.

That number is part of a much larger problem for Trump and the GOP: they are losing the independent voters who often determine the balance of political power in the U.S. On issue after issue, independents appear increasingly at odds with Trump’s policies, including the military strike, immigration, tariffs, and his major legislative priority — the so-called “Big, Beautiful Bill.”

CNN’s polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, and data analyst Harry Enten have been tracking the trend closely. Enten noted that independents, who helped Trump win reelection in 2024, are now abandoning him in significant numbers. Back in April, Enten reported that Trump had the worst approval rating among independents at that point in a presidency.

Trump can energize his base and still win, but the growing rift with the political center poses a serious threat to the sustainability of his agenda. Enten said, “The problem is you can’t be losing independents by 20+ points and survive in American politics”. 

The trend extends to other key issues. On immigration and deportations, more than half of independents said they have “no real confidence” in Trump’s approach, with 56% believing he has gone too far. On tariffs and economic policy, the administration has also failed to gain traction with the political center.

According to Edwars-Levy, a key challenge is that independents aren’t a unified or predictable voting bloc. He says they are often less engaging and less consistent ideologically, which in the end makes them harder to mobilize. 

As Trump pushes forward with bold domestic and foreign policy moves, his growing disconnect from independents could become political poison, not only for his presidency, but for the Republican Party as a whole heading into the 2026 midterms.