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March 13, 2026
The 2028 election is likely to be one of the most contentious and consequential of the 21st century. The election is going to be the first presidential election in 12 years without Donald Trump as a candidate, and may end an unprecedented and precarious time in American politics. On the republican side of the election, it is essentially guaranteed that J.D Vance will carry the torch of Trump, and will easily sweep the republican nomination, without significant opposition. Should Vance win the presidency, his term will most likely be marked with a continuation of Trump’s policies, but at a more muted level. However, the 2028 field for democrats is almost certainly to be extremely crowded and contentious and will likely shape the future of the democratic party.
Kamala Harris, presidential nominee in 2024, former vice president, former senator, and district attorney, is well positioned for a presidential run in 2028. She has near universal name recognition and her relatively progressive policies and lack of scandal marks a stark change from the Trump/Vance administration. Her campaign is almost certain to be well funded with significant momentum in the beginning, while fizzling down later, like it did during the 2020 primaries and the 2024 election. Unfortunately for Kamala Harris, her aforementioned name recognition comes as a double edged sword, while it boosts her profile, it also paints her as the establishment, at a time where America is extremely populist.
The most likely nominee for the democratic presidential election is undoubtedly Gavin Newsom, governor of California. With broad popularity within the democratic establishment and outside of it, his decades of experience, while being a Washington outsider, and his outreach to moderates and republicans, his profile perfectly matches what the democrats will be craving in 2028. At the same time, his time as governor has not been without scandal, being implicated with multiple recall attempts, problems with homelessness as well as a past affair bring significant baggage. However, of all the candidates in the emerging field, his candidacy appears to be stronger, especially because he benefits from demographic advantages.
Two underdog candidates are former Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, and House Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. These two individuals both have strong profiles and have been recognized on the national political stage, but not as significantly as Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. In addition, Buttigieg as a gay man, and Cortez, as a hispanic, unfortunately do not carry the demographic necessities to win a national election, on top of having relatively low level positions. However, with a well run campaign and an outpouring of support, it is not a long shot that these two may pull through.
Considering demographics, historical factors and national mood, it is undoubtedly true that Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom are the frontrunners for the democratic primaries in 2028. While they do have an uphill battle, they are in a good place to get started.
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